This article from What PC? mentions that three years down the road, the business world is only going to be faced with two remaining viable Linux alternatives: Red Hat and SuSE (by Novell). This seems completely plausible to me since the two mentioned are the two major Linux distros backed by some serious corporate interests. Other Linux distros like Ubuntu, MEPIS, Debian, etc probably will remain in the realm of hobbyists.
What the Linux base really needs is this sort of shakeout where there are less alternatives to galvanize the community around one or two options. One reason Microsoft is so strong is because there are no fringe MS solutions that people can flock to. Mac OS X and Linux are two completely different environments and it takes a fair bit of time and investment of money to make the transition at the organizational level. Moving one user from Windows to another platform isn’t tremendously difficult, but the logistics of moving an entire 1,000 person organization can be a nightmare.
It would be nice to see the desktop operating system market be divided into four viable alternatives: SuSE Linux, Mac OS, Windows, and Red Hat Linux. The Linux offerings are still a little off in terms of matching the ease of use Windows provides and can’t fully match up with the whiz-bang wow factor of Mac’s user interface. If Linux operating system development can be consolidated and concentrated, we might be able to see the focus required to put up a real fight against the entrenched MS operating system on corporate desktops.
Choice is good, however having too much choice isn’t good. This is the major thing holding Linux back today.